Zenyatta Set to Make Another Historical Run

If you watch one race this weekend, make it the Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar. Zenyatta is gunning for her 18th straight victory. (AP Images)

QUALITY ROAD and ZENYATTA -- two of the most accomplished horses in America -- are set to run in Grade-1 stakes at Saratoga and Del Mar on Saturday and both will be very heavy favorites to confirm their lofty rankings atop the racing world.

At 5:48 PM EDT, (2:48 PM PDT), Quality Road will meet a relatively strong field in 1-1/8 mile, $750,000 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. In that field will be the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, MINE THAT BIRD, who has not won since that memorable upset victory at Churchill Downs; BLAME, winner of six of his last seven starts, including the Grade-1 Stephen Foster at Churchill on June 12; HAYNESFIELD, winner of his last four including the G-2 Suburban at nine furlongs around one turn at Belmont. Also in the field is MUSKET MAN, who has won more than $1 million and who placed third to Mine That Bird in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and third behind RACHEL ALEXANDRA and Mine That Bird in the Preakness two weeks later.

Despite the obvious depth of this Whitney field, Quality Road is listed as a prohibitive odds on favorite to win his third straight G-1 stakes.

At 6:00 PM, PDT, (9:00PM EDT), undefeated Zenyatta is scheduled to face a non descript field of five seemingly overmatched rivals in the $300,000 Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar by the Pacific Ocean. Of course, Zenyatta is gunning for her 18TH straight victory, an amazing winning streak considering that no other horse in American racing history has won 17 straight while competing in major stakes. What also may be difficult to wrap your mind around is the fact that Zenyatta has one style of running, a style that rarely succeeds in American racing so prone to favor horses with front running and/or tactical speed. Zenyatta comes from far back in the pack and more often than not from dead last. She also rallies despite traffic issues, pace issues or when jockey Mike Smith simply spots the field four, five or six paths to swing widest of all for her big late punch.

Can she be beaten?

No horse is invincible. In fact, Zenyatta did face one of her closest calls in this same 1-1/16 mile stakes last year when the unaccomplished ANABAAS CREATION was in front through the length of the stretch only to fall victim to Zenyatta in the final stride. Zenyatta’s second closest call occurred in her most recent outing, when the very good filly ST. TRINIANS made a bold run to the lead at the top of the stretch in the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park. In that exceptionally run race, St. Trinians spurted into the clear while Zenyatta was accelerating at a similar clip into the stretch. Inside the final furlong, however, St Trinians   looked home free, holding a 2-1/2 length lead until Zenyatta reached into her reserve tank and put on a devastating final burst to win by 1/2 length driving clear.

The performance was one of the most dramatic I have seen in recent years and   confirmed for me that her Breeders’ Cup victory last fall against a very good field of established turf horses (who tend to love synthetic tracks) had pushed this mare into the pantheon of the great horses of modern times. Zenyatta is, in my judgment, the best older racemare of my lifetime.

But to answer the question posed earlier -- can she be beaten?

By any handicapping standard, no she cannot. But despite her relentless pursuit of history and her two previous wins in the Clement Hirsch, Zenyatta IS NOT A ROBOT and race horse athletes are always eligible to run below their usual standards. Moreover, the history of sports and racing in particular is filled with examples of a diabolical dynamic that should give everyone pause. As soon as the public at large believes that a sporting contest is too one sided to give the longshot underdog a chance, we have the foundation for a potential upset.

Consider the NY Jets beating the sure thing Baltimore Colts as 19 point underdogs in the Super Bowl III; the amazing NY Mets doing the same to the Baltimore Orioles; Buster Douglas knocking out undefeated Heavyweight Champion Mike Tyson at 30-1 odds and a young and brash Cassius Clay (Muhammad Ali) upsetting the seemingly invincible Sonny Liston, all great examples of this phenomenon.

In horse racing, we have seen plenty of 1-9 shots go down to defeat, including a few this year and I would bet that we will see a few more before we reach Dec. 31.

Zenyatta may run like a machine, but she definitely is not one. And, if the lightly regarded sprinter RINTERVALE gets an easy lead in the Hirsch, who is to say that she might improve five or six lengths in her overall form and be the one to end Zenyatta’s improbable streak?

Likewise, PRINCESS TAYLOR, a front running second in the G-3   Beverly Hills Handicap June 26 at 1-1/4 miles on turf, might play the role of Sat. Trinians here, chasing Rintervale and getting the jump on the undefeated champion.

Personally, I will not bet against Zenyatta. Nor will I bet on her. But I certainly will root for her to come out of this deceptively easy spot with another victory. And who knows? Maybe she will finally win by a huge margin, something she never has done.

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