ALCS Game 5 Odds

The Boston Red Sox have them right where they want them. (AP Images)"]

Boston is down 3-1 to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the ALCS; the Sox recovered from the same deficit to reach (and eventually win) the World Series in 2004 and 2007.

The odds are in Boston’s favor, at least for Thursday’s Game 5. The Red Sox are –155 favorites with a total of nine runs; Scott Kazmir takes the mound for the Rays against Game 1 winner Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Kazmir: 3.49 ERA, 125 ERA+, 4.23 xFIP, 4.76 tRA, 37.1 VORP
Matsuzaka: 2.90 ERA, 158 ERA+, 4.82 xFIP, 4.33 tRA, 50.6 VORP

Kazmir is having a bit of a down year and was lit up for five runs in Game 2, but his career numbers at Fenway (3.02 ERA) are better than those of James Shields (10.12 ERA), who will start Game 6 in Tampa if necessary.