Can Dolphins Build on 2008 Success?

Injuries aside, Ronnie Brown is going to have to do better this year. (AP Images)"]

The Miami Dolphins completed one of the most stunning turnarounds in NFL history last year, going from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and the AFC East title in 2008. That 10-win improvement tied the 1999 Colts for the best in NFL history.

Just about everything went right for Fins last season.

Miami finished is No. 1 in the NFL with a plus-17 turnover differential as it turned the ball over a record-tying 13 times, becoming only the seventh team in league history to average less than one turnover per game.

Meanwhile, quarterback Chad Pennington had the season of his career in his first year in South Florida. He set a Dolphins record by completing 67.4 percent of his passes (for a career-high 3,653 yards) with just seven interceptions in 476 attempts, finished second in the NFL MVP voting and was the NFL Comeback player of the Year. Pennington’s 97.4 quarterback rating was better than all but one of Dan Marino’s seasons in Miami.

Yet there are signs that last year was a bit of a fluke.

First off, Pennington was terrible against the Ravens in the wild-card round. He had four picks, which broke a Dolphin record and was more interceptions than Pennington had thrown in the final eight games of the regular season. In fairness, Pennington was facing a stellar Baltimore defense and was without injured receiver Greg Camarillo, but it brought back all those questions other teams have had about his lack of arm strength.

And if you look at Pennington’s career numbers with the Jets, he never really has put together back-to-back strong seasons. For example, in his best season in New York, Pennington threw for 3,120 yards and a TD/INT ratio of 22:6 in 2002. The following season his rating dropped 20 points with a TD/INT ratio of 13:12, albeit in five fewer games. That is a trend his career has seen, either because of ineffectiveness or injury.

In addition, Miami, which is 45/1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIV on Bodog, faces the NFL’s toughest schedule this season as calculated by its 2008 opponents’ records. The Dolphins have six games in the incredibly tough AFC East, plus matchups against 2008 playoff teams Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, Carolina, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. The Fins probably will be a road dog in all eight away games and a home dog three times (vs. Indy, New England and Pittsburgh).

Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano did an incredible thing in South Florida last season, but the 2009 Dolphins look like a below-.500 club. Also look for Chad Henne to be the team’s new quarterback by midseason. He’s the future and Pennington is in the last year of his contract.

Get ready for football season. Get all your football futures at Bodog.com.