Dallas Cowboys' 2009 projection: 10-6

Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys are listed at 15/1 odds to win the 2009/10 Super Bowl. (AI Wire Images)"]

The hottest coaching seat in the NFL for the 2009 season has to be in Big D, with Wade Phillips almost assuredly facing a win-big-or-be-gone fate. The reasons for this are threefold:

* Terrell Owens, who was cast as the main fall guy for last year's team finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs, was shipped out. This is supposed to make Tony Romo a better player, as he won't feel the need to force the ball to a pseudo-open T.O. a dozen times a game any longer. And it certainly should help what was a fractured locker room.

* Phillips already is in the final year of his contract, although there's technically an option year for 2010. Already there have been rumors that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is infatuated with getting Mike Shanahan on the sideline next year. Frankly, anything short of a Super Bowl probably means Phillips won't be back.

* Jones wants to make a big-time splash in the team's first season in that $1.2 billion ultra-modern stadium, which still doesn't have a corporate sponsor. Think the Cowboys winning a Super Bowl might help with sponsorship?

Certainly injuries can partly be to blame for last year's record, but Romo took a step back when he was healthy and there was simply no excuse for the team quitting in that 44-6 season-ending loss to the Eagles with the playoffs on the line.

If everyone's head is on straight, the talent is still there on both sides of the ball. Certainly there is a question at receiver, where Dallas is hoping Roy Williams can magically turn into a No. 1 receiver after disappearing when acquired from Detroit last year. I still expect the team to sign for or trade for a veteran receiver, however. A full season of multi-talented running back Felix Jones, who didn't play after Week 6 last year due to injury, should help the passing game, running game and on special teams. And remember the Cowboys discovered RB Tashard Choice as a nice complement to Marion Barber late last year.

On defense, the departures of Pacman Jones and Tank Johnson are probably addition by subtraction. And DeMarcus Ware might now be the best defensive player in all of football. Also look for linebacker Anthony Spencer to have a breakout year.

Here is the Cowboys' 2009 schedule, and we'll break it down after:
Sept. 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 vs. New York Giants, 8:20 p.m.
Sept. 28 vs. Carolina Panthers, 8:30 p.m.
Oct. 4 at Denver Broncos, 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 11 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Week 6: Bye
Oct. 25 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 1 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.
Nov. 8 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m.
Nov. 15 at Green Bay Packers, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 22 vs. Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Nov. 26 vs. Oakland Raiders, 4:15 p.m.
Dec. 6 at New York Giants, 4:15 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. San Diego Chargers, 4:15 p.m.
Dec. 19 at New Orleans Saints, 8:20 p.m.
Dec. 27 at Washington Redskins, 8:20 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 11th (opponents combined to go 131-123-2, .516, in 2008)
Projected record: 10-6
Bodog over/under total: 9
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 15/1

Bodog's over/under total seems a bit low with those generous Super Bowl odds (Dallas is behind only the Giants, Eagles and Vikings in the NFC). And I do believe the Cowboys should exceed nine wins, although the Dallas Morning News beat writer picked them to finish 9-7.

I think the Cowboys get off to a 3-0 start through September. The Bucs will be one of the worst teams in the league, and it's hard to imagine Dallas blows the opening game in the new stadium in prime time of Week 2 against the G-Men. Then the Cowboys get a second straight prime-time home game and will beat the Panthers.

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I don't think Dallas can win those back-to-back road games against AFC West clubs to open October but also don't see them getting swept. Let's say the Cowboys lose at Denver, which is always a tough place to play, but beat K.C. Dallas will beat a good Atlanta team to enter November at 5-1.

After beating Seattle, the Cowboys will then drop two straight to the Eagles and Packers. We all know what they did last year in Philly. Dallas did win last year in Lambeau, but that was its first time ever doing that, although Tony Romo is 2-0 against Green Bay. It might be plenty cold by Nov. 15. Look for a 2-0 finish to the month with the quick turnaround on Thanksgiving against the lousy Raiders.

If Dallas does enter December at 8-3 that would seem to put it in great shape for the NFC East title, but December has been this franchise's killer month. The Cowboys have not had a winning record in December since 1996 and were 1-3 last season. Since 1997, the Cowboys have gone 15-33 in their last four games of seasons. With that said, I see them winning at the Saints in a shootout and beating the Eagles in the regular-season finale for their lone two wins in the final five to end up 10-6.

That should be enough to get a wild-card spot at a minimum, and I expect Dallas to earn at least one playoff win this season for the first time since '96. A Super Bowl run is possible if Romo figures out how to play in December and January (he is 5-10 in those months) and if one of those young receivers emerges or Dallas finds an established pass-catcher via other methods.

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