Jacksonville Jaguars' 2009 Projection: 7-9

Jags' QB David Garrard is going to need a healthy offensive line this year if he wants his stats to improve. A little luck couldn't hurt either . (AP Images)"]

In my opinion, the Jacksonville Jaguars are possibly the hardest team to get a read on for the 2009 season. This team had designs on a Super Bowl run in 2008 coming off a 2007 season in which the Jags beat the Steelers in the wild-card round of the AFC playoffs and then gave the unbeaten Patriots all they could handle.

Last season was ugly, to the tune of 5-11 ugly. QB David Garrard regressed in a big way, with his quarterback rating dropping more than 20 points from 2007, but some of that has to go to an offensive line that was ravaged by injuries. Free agent receiver Jerry Porter was a colossal bust. Running back Fred Taylor started to show his age, and he was shown the door at the end of the season. Really the only decent offensive players were Maurice Jones-Drew, who got rewarded with a new contract and the featured back role with Taylor jettisoned, and WR Matt Jones, who had legal troubles and is gone, as his fellow receiver and first-round bust Reggie Williams.

The defense wasn't terrible last year, but it wasn't especially good, either, ranking No. 21 in the league in points allowed. Star tackle John Henderson seemed to take a step back last year, and the Jags need a rebound from him because they are thin at tackle. For sure that unit must get more turnovers after ranking only behind Denver last year with 17 takeaways.

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Looking to this year, Garrard is now in the best shape of his career, having dropped 20 pounds. So he says the mobility he had in 2007 will be back. Jones-Drew is one of the most unique talents in the game and maybe the best receiving running back in football. And the offensive line should be better with three starters back from injury, plus the Jags used their first two picks in this year's draft on offensive linemen and signed free agent Tra Thomas.

However, this team probably has the weakest group of receivers in the NFL. Right now the starters are penciled in as past-his-prime Torry Holt and Mike Walker, who had all of 16 catches in his rookie season last year. There's not much behind them, either, which makes one wonder why the team traded Dennis Northcutt to the Lions.

Once again, the defense should be middle-of-the-pack but probably no better.

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This is probably a turning point for this franchise. It is struggling to draw fans and is on any list of possible relocation. Coach Jack Del Rio probably loses his job with another losing season, and the team might not think of Garrard as a franchise QB with a second consecutive bad year.

Here is the Jaguars' 2009 schedule, and we'll break it down after:
Sept. 13 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Oct. 4 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Oct. 11 at Seattle Seahawks, 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 18 vs. St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.
Week 7: Bye
Nov. 1 at Tennessee Titans, 4:05 p.m.
Nov. 8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Nov. 29 at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Dec. 6 vs. Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Dec. 17 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 8:20 p.m.
Dec. 27 at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 11th (opponents combined to go 132-124, .516, in 2008)
Projected record: 7-9
Bodog over/under total: 8
Bodog odds to win AFC South: 4/1
Bodog odds to win AFC: 18/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 35/1 (subject to change)

The first quarter of the schedule is not very kind, with the Jags facing three playoff teams and one team that very likely could make it this year in Houston. That opener with Indy is the third straight year the Jags open with a divisional opponent; Jacksonville is 9-5 in openers, but that will drop to 9-6. And the Texans are 8-6 against the Jags all-time. If Jacksonville doesn't at least win one of those first four, the season is over.

That Rams game is historic in a way, because St. Louis is the only team in the league that hasn’t played a regular-season game in Jacksonville. That Rams and Chiefs games are the only two you know for sure the Jags will be favored in, and they'll win both.

That Nov. 29 game at San Francisco is the Jags' first visit there, while Fred Taylor gets to see his old team on Dec. 27.

December/January is pretty rough because even though Jacksonville is home for three games, they are all against teams that had .500 or better records last season. And you know New England and Cleveland will be rather cold that time of year. It’s the first time since 2000 that Jacksonville closes with back-to-back road games.

I'm not sure there's a two-game winning streak for Jacksonville on this schedule. There will at least be a two-game improvement from last year, but another last-place finish in the deep AFC South – and Del Rio is looking for work.

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