NFL Prop Bets: How Many NFL 1,000-yard Rushers in 2009?

LaDainian Tomlinson should be able to break the 1,000-yard rush mark this season. Then again, the guy is getting on in years. (AI Wire Image)"]

Bodog is really rolling out the unique NFL props with the season opener less than a week away. So I am going to hit on three of those this weekend.

Let's start with "How many players will have 1,000 or more rushing yards in 2009?" Bodog lists the over/under at 16 ½ (both at -115). So what's the right call?

Last year there were 16 players who broke the 1,000-yard mark:
Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis, Thomas Jones, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Ryan Grant, LaDainian Tomlinson, Brandon Jacobs, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Derrick Ward and Jamal Lewis.

Kevin Smith, Brian Westbrook, Ronnie Brown and Le'Ron McClain all came within 100 yards or less of reaching 1,000.

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Obviously there are 32 teams in the NFL, and it's very unlikely that two players from one team both break 1,000 yards rushing, although the Giants' Jacobs and Ward did so in 2008. That won't happen again in New York, as Ward is in Tampa Bay and new Giants No. 2 Ahmad Bradshaw won't get as many carries as Ward did.

So the question is, do you think there are either 16 or 17 teams that will have a 1,000-yard rusher? I would say the following players are locks this season: Peterson, Turner, Williams, Slaton, Forte, Johnson, Tomlinson (yes, even at his age), Jacobs and Gore. That's nine, meaning we need to find eight more to justify the over. Reaching 1,000 yards rushing isn't much of a milestone any more, considering it's only a 62.5-yard average over 16 games.

Portis still is a very good bet, although he wore down late last year. Grant will lose some carries to Brandon Jackson but is also probable. Steven Jackson will make it if he can stay healthy, but that's a big if. Lynch may not get there because he misses the first three games of the season due to suspension. Ward is rather unlikely to get there because he is sharing carries with Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams in Tampa. And the Browns' Lewis is very much showing his age, and he appears close to losing his job.

Of the guys who didn't get there last year, I would say the Lions' Smith is a near-certainty in 2009. Philly's Westbrook? He is getting more and more brittle, it seems, and now LeSean McCoy is around. The Dolphins' Brown splits time with Ricky Williams, and the Ravens' McClain isn't even a tailback.

Of guys further off the radar last year, I like Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew to reach the 1,000-yard mark as well as Pittsburgh's Willie Parker and perhaps Seattle's Julius Jones.

But teams like the Colts, Cowboys, Raiders and Patriots have backfield-by-committees.

To make a long story short, I believe the under is the best bet here despite the fact that the 16 ½ total was exceeded in both 2007 and 2006.

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