Oakland Raiders' 2009 Projection: 6-10

The Oakland Raiders went 5-11 last year, and that’s almost cause for celebration in the Bay area. (Wikimedia Images)"]

Five wins was the team’s most in a season 2004. Hey, you have to start somewhere.

But is there any reason to believe all this losing that started after the Raiders lost to the Bucs in Super Bowl XXXVII will end? Oakland has had four head coaches in four years (Tom Cable officially getting the full-time job in the offseason) but still the same owner in Al Davis, which seems to be the real problem. In fact, Oakland was widely ripped for this year’s draft, taking Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey over the much more heralded Michael Crabtree. Then the Raiders took Ohio safety Mike Mitchell in the second round, and most scouts had Mitchell with a late-round grade.

So what reasons are there to be positive this season? Well, the running game was actually pretty good last year, with the Raiders finishing 10th in the NFL by averaging 124.2 yards per game on the ground. It appears Darren McFadden will win the No. 1 job for this season, but Oakland has enviable depth behind him with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush.

Oakland is going to need possibly an NFL-best ground attack this year to reach .500, because it seems former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell simply isn’t improving at quarterback.   He has been very inconsistent in camp and still is too heavy. It’s Russell’s third season, which is usually a make-or-break year for quarterbacks. Jeff Garcia is waiting in the wings as a temporary fix. Russell has a very weak receiving corps, with Heyward-Bey not helping with his slow start. Zach Miller will catch a ton of balls at tight end.

The best thing you can say about the defense is that Oakland has the top cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. He might not have many interceptions or passes defensed, but that’s because quarterbacks won’t throw his way. For sure Oakland must improve against the run – since the Raiders’ losing ways started in 2003, Oakland has had the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 141.7 yards per game on the ground and 122 rushing touchdowns. Maybe new defensive coordinator John Marshall can help fix that.

At least the Raiders have two very good kickers.

Here is the Raiders’ 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:

• Sept. 14 vs. San Diego Chargers, 10:15 p.m.
• Sept. 20 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
• Sept. 27 vs. Denver Broncos, 4:15 p.m.
• Oct. 4 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 11 at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
• Oct. 18 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:05 p.m.
• Oct. 25 vs. New York Jets, 4:05 p.m.
• Nov. 1 at San Diego Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
• Week 9: Bye
• Nov. 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:05 p.m.
• Nov. 22 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 4:15 p.m.
• Nov. 26 at Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 p.m.
• Dec. 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
• Dec. 13 vs. Washington Redskins, 4:05 p.m.
• Dec. 20 at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m.
• Dec. 27 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
• Jan. 3 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 4:15 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 19th (opponents combined to go 122-132-2, .480, in 2008)

Projected record: 6-10

Bodog over/under total: 5 1/2

Bodog odds to win AFC West: 12/1

Bodog odds to win AFC: 50/1

Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 90/1

For the second year in a row, the Silver and Black open on Monday night against an AFC West foe. It didn’t work out too well in Denver for the Raiders this year, and it probably won’t this year against the Chargers. San Diego has won 11 in a row vs. the Raiders, the longest active win streak in the league against a single opponent. In addition, Oakland has a 10-game losing streak in prime-time games.

The Week 2 matchup is definitely winnable, as the Chiefs are coming off a 2-14 season and the fact that Oakland has won two in a row at Arrowhead. Beating Denver also is very possible, as the Broncos are being overhauled and may not have star receiver Brandon Marshall for the game as he still might face a suspension for an off-field issue still pending in Atlanta (as of this writing). Could Oakland be 2-1 after three games? No question it’s possible, perhaps even likely.

However, the Raiders will be underdogs in the next three games and probably can’t beat the Texans (fourth year in a row playing them), Giants or Eagles. The trips to Houston and New   York are one of three times the Raiders play back-to-back road games this season. That’s never easy to navigate.

As odd as it sounds, the Raiders seem more likely to lose to the Chiefs in Oakland, with K.C. winning six in a row there. But beating both the Chiefs and Bengals after the bye is very doable. Winning at Dallas in Oakland’s first Turkey Day game since 1970? Not happening.

One thing is for sure: the Raiders are glad Mike Shanahan is out of the division. The former Broncos coach was 21-7 against Oakland in 14 seasons.

The Raiders have six seasons in a row with at least 10 losses. The streak is the longest active in the league and tied for the second-longest in league history. Will it end this year? Nope, one game short.