Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2009 Projection: 4-12

Jeff Garcia is gone, but the Bucs still don't have a proven QB. (AP Images)"]

No team in the NFL choked late last season more than the Tampa Bay Bucs. Yes, choke is a strong word, but what else do you call it when a team has a playoff spot all but locked up but drops its final four games, including a home season finale against the lousy Oakland Raiders?

That collapse cost coach Jon Gruden and GM Bruce Allen their jobs despite a 9-7 record. In are Raheem Morris, the youngest head coach in the league and formerly the team's secondary coach (the Bucs are hoping to strike gold as the Steelers did in former Bucs secondary coach Mike Tomlin), and GM Mark Dominik, who has been in the Tampa Bay front office for years. Also gone is long-time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who announced his intention to join son Lane at the University of Tennessee late last season, which some credit/blame for the team's slide. QB Jeff Garcia, the team's starter most of last year, is now in Oakland. Receiver Joey Galloway is in New England. Running back Warrick Dunn is looking for work. But the biggest shock was the team cutting future Hall of Fame linebacker Derrick Brooks, probably the best player in franchise history.

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The Bucs drafted Kansas State's Josh Freeman in the first round to be the franchise quarterback, but they don't really want him playing until late this season if at all. It appears retread Byron Leftwich will win the starting job over Luke McCown, with the Bucs hoping to trade the loser of that battle. Tampa Bay does appear solid at running back, having signed Giants free agent Derrick Ward to go along with Earnest Graham and, perhaps, Cadillac Williams if he can return from another knee injury. And Kellen Winslow gives the team its best receiving tight end in years. The offensive line also is very solid.

It's on defense where this club could look very different, as it is moving away from Kiffin's famed Cover-2 scheme under new coordinator Jim Bates. The Bucs only had 29 sacks last year, and that number must grow substantially or this unit will take a step back.

Overall, this seems like a huge rebuilding season.

Here is the Bucs' 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:
Sept. 13 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 at Buffalo Bills, 4:05 p.m.
Sept. 27 vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Oct. 4 at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Oct. 11 at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Oct. 18 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Oct. 25 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m. (London)
Week 8: Bye
Nov. 8 vs. Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Nov. 22 vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Nov. 29 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Dec. 6 at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 at Seattle Seahawks, 4:15 p.m.
Dec. 27 at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 5th (opponents combined to go 148-107-1, .580, in 2008)
Projected record: 4-12
Bodog over/under total: 6 1/2
Bodog odds to win NFC South: 6/1
Bodog odds to win NFC: 28/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 65/1

In a way, the Bucs might have the most difficult schedule in the league. After all, they have to face the very tough AFC East and NFC East (four of their first five games against this loaded division), but then again so does the rest of Tampa Bay's division. What the Bucs have that no other team in the NFL does is just seven home games, courtesy of that "home" matchup against the Patriots in London.

That Week 2 game in Buffalo is the Bucs' first-ever trip there. Hey, if you are going to go, at least do it in September! But, honestly, I don't see Tampa Bay being a favorite in any game until possibly either Nov. 22 against the Saints or Dec. 13 against the Jets. And, yes, I realize the Bucs have won the past two in Tampa against Dallas. And Tampa Bay has won the past three regular-season meetings against Washington, but I expect a 0-for-NFC East run for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay won its first six home games last year, but it's possible the Bucs start 0-5 at Raymond James Stadium in 2009. I would think a 0-3 home start is a lock, with a victory over Green Bay possible considering the Bucs have won six of the past seven at home against the Packers. I expect a home win over the Jets, who visit Tampa for the first time since 2000.

Tampa Bay doesn't have a prime-time game scheduled this year; by comparison, the other three NFC South teams each have at least two.

By the way, the Bucs will break out those garish orangesicle uniforms for that home Packer game on Nov. 8. Unfortunately, I believe this team puts up a record similar to those old bad Buc teams.

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